As 2023 drew to a close iVT celebrated completing its 30th year. But rather than looking back, we decided to do what we’ve always done best and look forward – predicting what’s next for the off-highway industry in the years and decades to come. Over the following pages four seasoned industry specialists – OEM veteran, academic, futurist and analyst – tell us what they believe are the significant changes ahead and how we can prepare for them now.
For the full article including images, visit iVT’s 2024 annual.
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THE OEM VETERAN
ALAN BERGER
Now an independent consultant, Alan Berger is a veteran of off-highway OEMs, having spent more than 25 years in product development, helping to achieve 21 US patents. His career in construction was kickstarted in 1996 when Case Construction made him chief engineer. From 2007 to 2016, he worked for Volvo CE in roles of increasing importance. A US national, from 2009 he was based in Volvo CE’s Brussels office, where he rose to be senior vice president of technology. In 2016, he rejoined CNH Industrial as chief technology officer agricultural, a role he occupied for three years. Alan holds a BSc and an MSc from Carnegie Mellon University, and an MBA from Kellogg School of Management. In 2024 he will become a regular columnist for iVT!.
Have expectations been too high for electric?
We’ve seen the same ‘hype cycle’ we get with any new technology. Battery electric is necessary, but it’s one technology in the mix. You’re seeing it with passenger cars. Markets are flattening out and a bunch of start-ups are going under. In construction, people are bringing electric products to market but you hear how difficult it is. It works with some applications, though, and we’ll see more experimentation by OEMs.
Most attention is going to the ‘diesel engine out, drop in battery’ approach, but the best products will be designed from the ground up which takes time. A good analogy is moving from a broom, to early vacuum cleaners, to a Dyson, to robots. Each product looks totally different. How you build an electric car is a relatively settled debate,
but the equivalent needs to be figured out for every piece of off-road equipment, which could take a decade.
What about other fuel sources?
There are at least 20 different low-carbon fuels and some are completely compatible with existing engines. We got too excited about battery electrics and now we’re getting more realistic. The next leg of this discussion is around how synthetic fuels can help to decarbonise faster, especially as these machines are operating for at least 10 years.
The current situation with different regulations around the world for diesel is complicated. But that’s nothing compared to what’s coming. There will be different regulations for fuel types and regions. We’re likely to see regulators steering the market by favouring certain fuels and providing tax incentives.
Do you see a future for hydrogen?
Achieving an effective, affordable fuel cell is a harder challenge. The two biggest truck manufacturers, Daimler and Volvo, needed a joint venture to get into fuel cells. But with hydrogen combustion, distribution of energy is simpler and the approach is more familiar. We’re going to see more hydrogen-powered equipment at the larger end as it’s easier to build. But the infrastructure is not there just yet.
What about automation?
Mainstream adoption will be incremental as it’s easier for markets to absorb and to do safely. We’ve been automating machines for a long time and had row guidance for over 20 years. But it’s got more advanced and we’ll see more rapid evolution.
A next step will be to start controlling the drive train. Full Level 4 autonomous solutions are closer in agriculture as you’ve got a fairly controlled environment. Construction is more chaotic and we’re a technical breakthrough away from the mainstream.
What will be the major uses for AI?
The obvious place to use AI is improving operations. Even if I’ve got a great operator, but how many hours in the day are they great? What can you do to make the machine run well when they’re not at their best? Or make an average operator perform as well as a skilled operator?
Another place you find value is doing things that even a skilled operator can’t do like sensing something dynamically, so they don’t have to get down from the machine. It’s a few years out, but AI could gather data on harvests, help create plans to control the machines, keep track of every seed.
Further out, it could impact how OEMs do machine design, or use 3D printing. It can potentially design structures that a human engineer would never do.
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THE FUTURIST
CAROLINA DIEZ FERRER
Carolina Diez Ferrer was appointed vice president of future solutions at Volvo Construction Equipment in March 2023. The department’s role is to explore and create the technologies, business models
and solutions of the future. Carolina was born in Spain, but has worked for Volvo Group in Gothenburg, Sweden, for nearly eight years. She moved to Volvo’s construction arm as head of advanced engineering programmes in January, 2021. Carolina studied for a Masters in Computer Science at the University of Zaragoza (2000-2005) and did her master’s thesis in computer science at the Centre of Autonomous Systems at KTH Royal Institute of Tech, in Stockholm (2005-2006).
What are the long-term goals for Volvo CE?
I lead our Future Solutions department, which is looking forward 20 to 40 years. It’s going to be a carbon-neutral, connected and fully autonomous future. I believe it will happen, but a major concern remains safety.
To reach our goals, we’re also focusing on innovation in the present, up to around 2030. There’s an acceleration of development with lots of partnerships with industry and universities.
It’s a super exciting time to be an engineer, but extremely complex. There’s no silver bullet technology and we’re exploring multiple options in tandem. The three central pillars are electrification, automation
and connectivity.
How will your electric vehicles’ programme continue?
Like all OEMs, we’re investing in electric and battery electric remains our most advanced technology. We started with smaller machines like the L25 and L20 compact wheel loaders, and the EC25 and EC30 compact excavators. Battery technology has matured since we started in 2020 and we’re accelerating towards developing electric versions of larger machines. We’re also exploring electro-hydraulic and grid-connected solutions.
Does hydrogen have a future at Volvo CE?
We are testing the world’s first fuel-cell articulated hauler prototype, the HXO4. It’s in the concept phase and we’re collecting data about how the fuel source operates, the charging and so on.
The challenges are greater than with electric because we lack the infrastructure. So we expect it to arrive later. We’re also exploring combustion engines fuelled by biofuels.
What is your view of automation and AI?
Automation will be a game changer in construction. Our 15-tonne autonomous battery electric hauler, the TA15 is already in service. These machines allow customers to downsize and replace larger, diesel-powered vehicles with fleets of autonomous, connected ones. Partners in Switzerland are helping to test its productivity, interaction with humans and charging capacity.
Meanwhile, AI will help customers to manage operations, boosting productivity, and I believe it will eventually eliminate the possibility of accidents. Used in a smart way, AI can help prevent cost overruns and alleviate labour shortages, a major issue in Sweden, where few people want to work in Lapland in minus 20 temperatures.
One of my favourite research concepts is the autonomous electric LX03 [also known as the Zeux] a collaboration between Volvo, Lego and a group of children who shared their drawings of how they imagined autonomous wheel loaders. It’s a zero-emission machine, capable of making independent decisions and interacting with humans. Another important futuristic project is our partnership with Ericsson to run Sweden’s first 5G network for industrial use with remote-controlled machines and automation.
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THE ANALYST
ALASTAIR HAYFIELD
Alastair Hayfield is a senior research director at Interact Analysis. With a background in industrial and automotive market research, he has worked with major companies like BMW, GM, Bosch, Siemens, Panasonic, Apple and Infineon. With a focus on primary research, Alastair has conducted thousands of discussions with senior executives, engineers, sales managers and others to understand market growth, new technologies and competitive pressures. His primary area of research is electrification, specifically focusing on electric trucks, buses and off-highway vehicles.
Do you see a big difference between agriculture and
construction vehicles?
Agriculture is not generally a good sector to electrify equipment. It’s hard work ploughing field or bringing the harvest in. Battery electric vehicles don’t meet those requirements, or their heavy batteries cause the weight to degrade the land.
I expect small agricultural vehicles to become electrified, but for larger vehicles, operators will look at biofuels. There are already tractors making use of manure. Recently at Agritechnica, John Deere showcased an ethanol engine this would be applicable somewhere like Brazil, where they produce it from crops. By comparison, it’s easier to do electrification in construction as power requirements are lower and you have access to power in cities.
Is there a future for hydrogen?
We researched hydrogen after JCB announced an engine, then almost every heavy-duty engine manufacturer launched a programme, including Deutz, Cummins, MAN and Volvo CE. But the technical challenges are a major hurdle.
Hydrogen is harder to work with as it can corrode the engine and it’s a much smaller molecule so it leaks. The engine has to be larger, more precisely built and requires lubricants, increasing costs. And you have to pay a lot for the storage tanks.
The biggest problem is availability as getting it from natural gas is no more environmentally friendly so you need green sources like wind, or solar power, but they’re unlikely to be available for a decade and will cost more. The only way we can see mass adoption of hydrogen is through legislation. Battery electric is better for most applications and cheaper, or it makes more sense to improve existing hydraulics.
Some alternative biofuels also face challenges. There’s not an infinite supply of methane from cows for biomethane and biodiesel from crops can damage engines, meaning engines require additional design work and more maintenance.
What about AI?
On the agricultural side, John Deere, for example, are investing
a lot in AI mainly in maximising crop production. It might look at nutrient data, or studying intelligence from drones to find the
optimal way to deploy fertiliser and use less water. On construction sites, if you feed in data from your machines, you could potentially optimise their use and save 10% off your annual bill. Meanwhile,
there’s a technique in automotive called generative design,
where you design components on computers to use far less
material, saving on fuel.
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THE ACADEMIC
PROFESSOR JOHN K SCHULLER
John K. Schueller is a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering, and an affiliate professor of agricultural and biological engineering at the University of Florida. He has more than 40 years of experience in research on agricultural equipment. He is well known for his pioneering work in precision agriculture, including developing yield mapping and variable application technologies. But as a general expert in both agricultural equipment and precision agriculture, he is often asked to comment on trends in agricultural technologies. Professor Schueller has previously been employed by Ken Schueller Farms, Gilson Brothers Company, Purdue University, Texas A&M University, Caterpillar, and Kyoto University.
What are the key factors relating to electric vehicles?
First, hydraulic actuators will be replaced by electrical actuators for several reasons, including quieter noise, greater efficiency and lack of fluids. Second, we have to ask if engines will remain hydraulic, or switch to electrical? For conversion to work, there has to be one of three requirements. The first is low power. Second is intermittent operations. The third is issues with noise, or exhaust pollution.
But these three factors don’t apply often to off-highway. A tractor or bulldozer is at high power constantly and noise and fumes are less problematic outside. In cities, you’ll see more use.
A backhoe loader replacing a pipe under a road doesn’t need much power and operates intermittently. Noise and exhaust pollution are both a major problem.
But in the big farms of the US, or Australia, we’ll need long-term, continuous heavy power and it may take a decade for widespread use.
Is there a significant role for alternative fuels?
Accommodating different engines and fuels won’t be so problematic as electrification brings better controls. We could see engines running on both biodiesel and compressed natural gas. I’m not sure if we’ll see more engines running on almost anything, or different engines installed in the same equipment.
We’re also seeing more solar panel farms. But the sector needs to cut the cost of agrivoltaics and consider that farms will eventually be decommissioned. This niche sector will see a long process of development of equipment that can deal efficiently with solar panels in the fields.
How do you see equipment size changing?
It’s unlikely. Many people anticipate fleets of 50 small tractors and we will see small equipment used for scouting crops, such as drones. But modern agriculture has become a large materials handling operation and smaller vehicles are of limited use.
There are restrictions on bigger sizes, too, including old roads in Europe, and parts of the US. The other limiting factor is soil compaction. Doubling the size increases the weight by a factor of eight.
Will the uses of agricultural equipment change?
We won’t see huge changes in broadacre crops, although I expect more usage of cover crops in the US in wintertime and more equipment to deal with it. An increase in strip tilling could take hold, too, and we’ll see more non-chemical weed control using lasers, or water jets. But overall, there will be more change in horticultural equipment as so much of that is still manual.
